Big East Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Creighton, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Early in the season, Creighton has encountered significant hurdles with their shooting, a persistent struggle that is hampering their overall offensive efforts.
Butler, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Butler is demonstrating marked improvement as their performance on the offensive glass has been trending positively throughout the early part of the season, contributing to an overall strengthening of their rebounding profile.
Georgetown, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – The marked improvement in Georgetown’s shooting mechanics is contributing significantly to a more efficient offensive output for the squad.
Butler, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – Butler is struggling with an increasing number of turnovers that are negatively impacting their overall performance.
DePaul, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – DePaul has begun to tighten ball security, marking a clear improvement that contributes to overall offensive fluidity as the season gets underway.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Marquette, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.04 – Marquette has sharpened its defensive identity, transforming its shot-stopping ability into a formidable early-season strength that seamlessly disrupts opposing offensive rhythms and solidifies their reputation as an imposing force on the court.
Creighton, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Creighton has shown improvement in securing more defensive rebounds, a shift that allows the squad to extend possessions and limit opponent opportunities.
Georgetown, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Georgetown is grappling with a troubling lack of defensive rebounding control that allows opponents too many chances to grab offensive boards, undermining the team’s early-season defensive stability.
Creighton, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Creighton is showing clear progress in its ability to force more turnovers from opposing ball handlers, indicating a developing defensive identity that stifles opponent possessions without relying on specific statistical thresholds.
Creighton, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Creighton has demonstrated an ability to stifle opponents by tightening its defensive approach.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Butler, Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall, St John’s
Trending Down (Efficiency): Creighton, DePaul, Providence, UConn

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1510.8 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.37 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Creighton

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1563.0 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.40 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

DePaul

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1496.6 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.51 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Georgetown

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1514.9 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.67 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Marquette

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1545.8 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +44.36 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Providence

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1503.6 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.99 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Seton Hall

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1561.0 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.10 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

St John’s

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1719.4 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.59 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UConn

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1745.1 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.00 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Villanova

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1607.6 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.20 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Xavier

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1539.8 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.39 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Butler presents a complex offensive picture defined by conflicting trajectories. The team’s turnover rate averages 0.18 per game, but this metric is trending up strongly, indicating a significant deterioration in ball security that will likely hinder future performance. Conversely, the Golden Eagles are showing marked improvement in rebounding efforts offensively. Their offensive rebounding percentage sits at a season average of 0.396 and is trending up strongly, suggesting a more aggressive approach to second-chance points. Creighton stands out for broad-based improvements across both offensive and defensive categories, though offensively the Blue Jays are facing challenges in efficiency. Their shooting percentage has dropped from a season average of 0.49, trending downward strongly, which represents a clear decline in scoring consistency. Defensively, however, Creighton is driving multiple positive trends; their opponent shooting percentage is trending down strongly, signaling an uptick in defensive effectiveness. Furthermore, the team is becoming more disruptive in transition as their forced opponent turnover rate averages 0.218 and is trending up strongly, confirming they are successfully forcing more turnovers on the opposing unit. Additionally, Creighton’s defensive rebounding percentage has reached a season average of 0.785 and is trending up strongly, indicating they are grabbing more defensive boards than in previous contests. On the ball security front, DePaul has implemented effective adjustments as their turnover rate, currently averaging 0.139 per game, is trending down strongly, reflecting an improvement in their ability to retain possession and minimize unforced errors. A single metric highlights a regression for Georgetown, where the team’s defensive rebounding percentage has dropped from a season average of roughly 0.646. This trend is moving downward strongly, meaning Georgetown is allowing more offensive boards against them, which could lead to increased second-chance opportunities for opponents. These momentum indicators serve as early signals regarding performance across the conference race. While Butler balances worsening ball control with better rebounding, Creighton combines shooting struggles with significant defensive growth. DePaul has stabilized their turnovers, but Georgetown must address their rebounding lapses quickly.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBE

TagsBE Big East Big East Conference