Coastal Update: Week 1

Coastal Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Charleston, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.103 – Charleston’s increasing percentage of rebounds generated off second chances is a constructive development contributing to overall possession efficiency throughout this week’s schedule.
  2. Drexel, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Drexel is facing a growing concern as its ability to secure rebounds declines, creating a tangible vulnerability in its defensive transition game.
  3. Charleston, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Charleston’s shooting mechanics have evolved into a positive trend that is contributing to enhanced offensive efficiency early in the season.
  4. Elon, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Elon’s declining shooting performance poses a significant hurdle for their offense as they struggle to find rhythm during the early stages of the campaign.
  5. Charleston, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Charleston is leveraging improved ball security to strengthen their overall team performance.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Charleston, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – As Charleston begins their season, they are grappling with a troubling decline in defensive rebounding that allows opponents too many second chances, revealing a significant vulnerability on the glass before any major matchups have occurred.
  2. Towson, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Towson is encountering a troubling defensive challenge as their ability to secure rebounding opportunities deteriorates, allowing opponents too many chances to grab offensive boards.
  3. Hampton, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Hampton is facing challenges this week in the first week of the season as their defensive rebounding percentage worsens, indicating a growing trend that allows opponents to secure more offensive boards and creating an issue that could hinder their overall performance.
  4. Elon, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Elon is strengthening its defensive rebounding efforts by securing more loose balls under the rim, creating positive momentum early in the season.
  5. William & Mary, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – William & Mary is struggling to generate turnovers from their opponents, indicating a troubling inability to disrupt opposing offenses as the season gets underway.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1469.2 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.11 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Charleston

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1627.2 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.65 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Drexel

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1507.7 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.31 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Elon

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1468.1 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.13 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Hampton

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1429.0 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.84 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Hofstra

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1565.0 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.68 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Monmouth

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1511.1 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.01 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

NC A&T

Record: 0-1 | Elo: 1386.5 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.00 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Northeastern

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1398.2 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.66 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Stony Brook

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1459.2 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.78 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Towson

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1537.8 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.65 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1632.4 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.78 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

William & Mary

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1523.2 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.46 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Colonial MACD Analysis: Week 1 Wrap-Up

As the Colonial basketball season progresses, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trending indicators serve as critical tools for distinguishing genuine team improvement from fleeting momentum. While these metrics capture the magnitude of change across the league, only specific franchises have demonstrated significant directional shifts in their early games. The following analysis breaks down the key offensive and defensive trends identified during Week 1.

Offensive Momentum: A Tale of Reinforcement and Regression

Among the Colonial teams analyzed, Charleston stands out for consistent offensive reinforcement. The data indicates a strong upward trend in shooting efficiency, with the season average sitting at 0.65. This metric is trending strongly up, signaling that Charleston’s scoring output is improving as their value increases. Conversely, defensive stability translates directly to offensive opportunity; Charleston also shows a strong upward trend in Offensive Rebound Percentage (season avg: 1.0). By grabbing more offensive boards, the team creates additional possessions, further driving the increase in value.

Charleston similarly excels at minimizing mistakes. Their turnover rate currently sits at a season average of 0.12 and is trending strongly down. As this value decreases, it indicates a marked improvement in ball security, allowing the offense to execute its plan without interruption.

In contrast, Drexel presents a divergent offensive picture regarding rebounding. While their specific metric for Offensive Rebound Percentage is currently at a season average of 0.22, the trend is trending strongly down. This decline signifies worsening performance in creating extra possessions, effectively reducing their overall offensive value.

Defensive Adjustments: Winning the Battle for Boards and Ball Security

Rebounding remains a pivotal defensive component for the Colonial schools. Elon has established themselves as an elite defender on the glass. Their Defensive Rebound Percentage averages 0.73 per game and is trending strongly up. By grabbing more defensive boards, Elon limits opponents’ second-chance opportunities, directly improving their team value.

However, other teams show signs of vulnerability in this area. Both Towson and Charleston are experiencing a downward trend in their Defensive Rebound Percentage (averages of 0.715 and 0.712, respectively). While still high by absolute standards, these metrics are trending strongly down, indicating that these teams are allowing more offensive boards to opponents than desired. This represents a worsening situation where defensive control is slipping.

Finally, the turnover battle reveals contrasting outcomes for team ball security. William & Mary currently forces opponent turnovers at a season average of 0.135, but this metric is trending strongly down. A decrease in forced turnovers means the defense is forcing fewer mistakes by opponents, which constitutes a worsening trend in creating defensive stoppage opportunities.

Summary of Week 1 MACD Trends

The initial data highlights that while some Colonial teams are reinforcing their strengths—specifically Charleston’s shooting, rebounding, and turnover reduction—others face challenges that require immediate attention. Drexel needs to halt the decline in offensive rebounding, Elon should maintain its defensive board dominance, and both Towson and William & Mary must address the erosion of their ability to secure defensive boards and force opponent mistakes. These MACD indicators will be tracked closely next week as more games are played to determine if these trends stabilize or continue to evolve.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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