Horizon Update: Week 1

Strongest Offensive Trends

1. Cleveland State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.033 – Cleveland State shows an upward trajectory in rebounding percentages, indicating that improvements in glass work are beginning to contribute positively to their overall team dynamics.
2. IUPUI, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.031 – As IUPUI improves its rebounding, the squad is effectively securing more possessions to fuel a stronger overall offensive output.
3. Detroit Mercy, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – Detroit Mercy is grappling with a troubling decline on the boards, leaving them exposed and vulnerable throughout the game as their rebounding efforts falter under pressure.
4. Green Bay, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.026 – Green Bay has shown marked improvement in securing rebounds after losses, suggesting that their ability to get back on defense is strengthening as the season progresses.
5. Detroit Mercy, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – Detroit Mercy’s Shooting is trending down, a worsening trend.

Strongest Defensive Trends

1. Cleveland State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.027 – Cleveland State faces a troubling early-season struggle as its fading ability to silence opponents’ scoring increasingly exposes the team’s defensive vulnerability.
2. IUPUI, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – IUPUI is demonstrating an upward trend in their defensive rebounding percentage as they successfully secure more long balls, which effectively limits their opponents’ second-chance scoring opportunities early in the season.
3. Milwaukee, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – As Milwaukee faces challenges early in the season, their ability to limit points for opposing squads is showing signs of decline rather than improvement.
4. Green Bay, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Green Bay has demonstrated an improved ability to defend against shooting attempts from opposing squads throughout the early portion of the season, effectively stifling their opponents’ scoring efficiency.
5. N Kentucky, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – N Kentucky faces growing concern as opponents become increasingly difficult to defend against, revealing a troubling struggle to hold their defense together throughout this season’s early games.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

• Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
• Trending Up (Efficiency): Green Bay, IUPUI, N Kentucky, Wright State, Purdue Fort Wayne
• Trending Down (Efficiency): Cleveland State, Detroit Mercy, Milwaukee, Oakland, Youngstown St

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Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1436.3 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -43.68 (ranked 365 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 0-1 | Elo: 1455.1 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -39.09 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Green Bay

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1473.0 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.76 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

IUPUI

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1341.9 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.63 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Milwaukee

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1455.3 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.60 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

N Illinois

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1374.6 (ranked 350 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.68 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

N Kentucky

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1522.8 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.57 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Oakland

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1488.9 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.06 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1493.5 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.52 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Robert Morris

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1542.9 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.53 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1551.0 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.94 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Youngstown St

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1491.0 (ranked 204 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.93 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

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Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

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Looking Ahead

The early games of the season reveal distinct momentum shifts across several squads, as Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicators separate genuine improvement from unsustainable variance. Cleveland State demonstrates a significant positive shift in offensive rebounding efficiency; while their season average for offensive rebound percentage sits at 0.242, the MACD indicator shows this metric is trending strongly up. This upward momentum suggests an increasing ability to secure second-chance opportunities, directly contributing to higher value generation for their offense. Similarly, Green Bay is exhibiting strong improvement in the same area. With a season average offensive rebound percentage of 0.249, Green Bay’s trend is also moving strongly upward, indicating they are actively gaining control on the glass and improving their offensive potential over time.

Conversely, Detroit Mercy faces an offensive regression regarding shooting efficiency. Their season average shooting percentage stands at 0.38, yet the trend is flagged as strongly down. This deterioration signifies a sharp decline in scoring production per possession, which negatively impacts their overall offensive output if not corrected quickly. Furthermore, Detroit Mercy’s performance on the glass is also sliding; their offensive rebound percentage averages 0.265 but is trending strongly downward. This dual decline suggests they are struggling to sustain offensive rhythm both through shot-making and by failing to recover missed opportunities.

In the defensive realm, Green Bay stands out for their improving ability to suppress opponents. Their season average for opponent shooting percentage is 0.52, and the MACD indicates this figure is trending strongly down. A downward trend in opponent shooting represents a positive development, meaning they are increasingly effective at preventing opposing teams from converting shots as the games progress. Cleveland State presents a defensive concern regarding how opponents handle their pressure. While they hold an average opponent shooting percentage of 0.64, this metric is trending strongly up. An upward trend here indicates that opponents are becoming more efficient against them, suggesting Cleveland State may be allowing easier scoring opportunities than their season average implies.

IUPUI shows promise on the defensive glass. Their season average for defensive rebound percentage is a robust 0.621, and the trend is moving strongly up. This progression means they are grabbing an increasing volume of defensive boards relative to the total available, effectively limiting opponents’ second-chance points and maintaining better control inside their own paint. Milwaukee, however, exhibits a troubling decline in defensive efficiency. With an opponent shooting percentage average of 0.62, their trend is moving strongly up. This indicates that they are allowing opponents to shoot with higher efficiency as the games go on, highlighting a vulnerability that could be exploited by competition.

The current data underscores a clear divergence in team trajectories. Cleveland State and Green Bay are showing signs of strengthening specific facets of their game—offensive rebounding for Cleveland State and defensive suppression for Green Bay. IUPUI is successfully building momentum on the defensive boards. Meanwhile, Detroit Mercy is experiencing declines in both shooting and offensive rebounding, while Milwaukee shows a concerning upward trend indicating defensive inefficiencies are increasing. As the games continue, these indicators will remain vital in tracking whether these early patterns solidify or reverse.

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Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

• eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
• TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
• OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
• FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

• Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
• Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

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Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.