Metro Update: Week 1

Metro Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Iona, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Iona is grappling with a troubling rise in turnovers that is actively hampering their offensive potential and handing opponents easy scoring chances during this opening week.
  2. Fairfield, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Fairfield is experiencing a troubling decline in shooting accuracy that is actively hampering their ability to convert possessions into points.
  3. Canisius, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Canisius continues to grapple with significant shooting inefficiencies throughout this season, a persistent issue that is hindering their capacity to score consistently against opponents.
  4. Marist, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – A rising turnover rate for Marist is already hampering their offensive potential early in the season.
  5. Manhattan, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – As Manhattan navigates the opening week of the season, a troubling rise in turnover frequency is stalling offensive momentum and creating significant struggles for scoring opportunities.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Canisius, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.028 – The Golden Griffins are struggling to secure defensive rebounds, which is allowing opponents greater access to offensive second-chance opportunities.
  2. Fairfield, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Fairfield is showing a clear improvement in generating turnovers against its opponents, which should help limit their chances to score during crucial moments of the game.
  3. Iona, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Iona is struggling to force turnovers from their opponents, leading to a worrying decline in defensive stability that could undermine their prospects later in the season.
  4. Quinnipiac, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – As the season gets underway, Quinnipiac faces a frustrating inability to generate turnovers that suggests defensive pressure has slipped during their initial games.
  5. Canisius, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Canisius faces a growing concern as the defense’s ability to force turnovers is declining, presenting a significant struggle against opposing ball handling units.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1362.1 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -38.98 (ranked 361 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Fairfield

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1514.8 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.67 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Iona

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1520.7 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.85 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Manhattan

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1425.3 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.35 (ranked 256 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Marist

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1514.9 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.67 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Merrimack

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1569.0 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.12 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1502.7 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.43 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Niagara

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1375.1 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.31 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1548.1 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.40 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rider

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1356.1 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.17 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Sacred Heart

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1464.8 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.50 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Siena

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1535.3 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.54 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

St Peter’s

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1481.9 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.53 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

The analysis of this season’s games so far reveals divergent trajectories in shooting efficiency and ball security across the conference. Momentum indicators highlight specific units that are stabilizing while others face significant regression early in the campaign.

Offensive output is actively decreasing for several key programs based on current data trends. Canisius enters with a season average of 0.39, yet their momentum indicates a strong downward trend, signaling that offensive value is worsening and decreasing rapidly. Fairfield projects a season average shooting efficiency of 0.44, but the indicators show a similarly strong downward trend. This suggests that despite a solid baseline, the unit’s ability to convert possessions is deteriorating fast, posing a challenge for an offense relying on high conversion rates to compete.

Ball security has emerged as another critical fault line for specific squads. Iona currently averages 0.208 turnovers per game, and the momentum analysis flags a strong upward trend in this metric. In the context of team efficiency, an upward trend in turnovers represents a worsening situation, indicating that the unit is increasingly mishandling the ball. Manhattan faces parallel concerns regarding ball control; with a season average of 0.167 turnovers, their data points to a strong upward trend as well. This consistent increase in turnover frequency suggests a developing issue in game management or decision-making under pressure.

Defensive metrics display contrasting signals across the teams analyzed. Fairfield demonstrates an ability to disrupt opponent rhythm; with a season average of 0.211 in forced turnovers, their momentum indicates a strong upward trend. This improvement suggests they are becoming more effective at generating steals or causing mistakes that lead directly to offensive opportunities. Conversely, Canisius is showing signs of defensive erosion. Their momentum on forcing opponent turnovers is trending strongly downward with a season average of 0.143, meaning the team is failing to generate second-chance points as effectively as before. Additionally, their defensive rebounding percentage has taken a hit; with a season average of 0.57, they are trending strongly downward in this metric, indicating they are allowing more offensive boards and giving up possessions that could be converted into points by the opposition. Iona’s defensive metrics also point to a worrying regression regarding turnover generation. While their forced turnovers per game sit at a season average of 0.133, the trend is strongly downward, signifying a worsening capability in forcing mistakes compared to previous moments of analysis.

These quantitative shifts offer a rigorous framework for identifying which squads are building sustainable habits and which may require immediate tactical adjustments as the season deepens.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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