Mid-American Update: Week 1

Mid-American Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Buffalo, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.045 – During this early phase of the season, Buffalo is grappling with a concerning slump in offensive rebounding, as their inability to secure second-chance opportunities off missed shots has started to erode overall possession control.
  2. Akron, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – The troubling decline in rebounding indicates a significant struggle for Akron that jeopardizes their capacity to secure possessions throughout the season.
  3. Buffalo, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Buffalo faces an analytical concern as its shooting performance shows a declining trajectory that directly undermines overall offensive production.
  4. Cent Michigan, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – The improvement in shooting accuracy for Cent Michigan during the early phase of the season is contributing positively to their overall offensive efficiency.
  5. Cent Michigan, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – Cent Michigan is struggling with turnover issues that are detracting from their overall offensive execution.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Ball State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Ball State has shown signs of improvement by successfully stifling their opponents’ shooting efficiency throughout this early portion of the season.
  2. Akron, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Akron is showing encouraging signs of improvement as its efficiency on securing defensive rebounds continues to rise throughout the season.
  3. Bowling Green, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Bowling Green is struggling defensively as their inability to generate turnovers from opponents suggests they are failing to apply sufficient defensive pressure early in the season.
  4. Ball State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Ball State is demonstrating improved efficiency in securing defensive rebounds, thereby effectively stifling opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
  5. Akron, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Akron’s defensive unit faces challenges this season as a decline in generating opponent turnovers coincides with an uptick in giveaways committed by their own squad.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1668.2 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.95 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Ball State

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1419.5 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.20 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Bowling Green

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1488.4 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.81 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Buffalo

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1430.0 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.98 (ranked 280 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cent Michigan

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1432.2 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.83 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

E Michigan

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1424.5 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.13 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Kent State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1577.7 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.17 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Miami (OH)

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1660.8 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.91 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1500.8 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.54 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Toledo

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1538.7 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.18 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UMass

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1481.9 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.13 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

W Michigan

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1414.3 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.81 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

The following analysis evaluates team momentum through Week 1 using MACD indicators that measure the magnitude of shifts in performance. The data highlights specific offensive and defensive trajectories for Akron, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan, and UMass.

Offensive Trends: Mixed Signals Across Teams

Akron faces a significant challenge regarding rebounding efficiency with an Off Reb Pct of 0.357 trending down strongly; this indicates a worsening situation where the value is decreasing, suggesting the team is losing ground on second-chance opportunities compared to its baseline. Similarly, Buffalo presents concerns in shooting proficiency with a Shooting percentage season average of 0.43 trending down strongly, signaling a deterioration in offensive output. Additionally, Buffalo’s Off Reb Pct sits at a 0.144 season average and is trending down strongly, reflecting another area of declining performance.

Conversely, Central Michigan stands out as the sole team demonstrating robust offensive improvement. Their Shooting metric has jumped to a 0.54 season average and is trending up with strong strength. This positive trajectory suggests the offense is operating at an elevated level relative to the start of the season, establishing a foundation for sustained success.

Defensive Trends: Stabilizing Against Opponents

Defensively, specific indicators point to where teams are gaining control or losing ground. Akron shows a mixed profile; while they are successfully grabbing more defensive boards, improving their Def Reb Pct to 0.749 with strong upward trending momentum, they have encountered issues forcing opponent errors. Their Opp Turnovers metric has dropped to a season average of 0.128 and is trending down strongly, representing a worsening in their ability to disrupt opposing offenses as the value of forced turnovers is decreasing.

Ball State exhibits strong defensive consolidation. Their Def Reb Pct stands at 0.732 and is trending up strongly, indicating an improvement in securing possession after opponent shots. Furthermore, Ball State has enhanced its ability to limit offensive efficiency against them; their Opp Shooting metric sits at 0.45 and is trending down strongly. This decline in the opponent’s shooting percentage reflects a successful defensive scheme that forces lower-value shot attempts, effectively reducing the threat level of opposing offenses.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC
TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference

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