MEAC Update: Week 1

MEAC Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Morgan State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.062 – The marked improvement in Morgan State’s rebounding percentage is contributing to increased offensive efficiency for the team.
  2. MD-E Shore, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.061 – The team’s rebounding proficiency shows clear signs of development, with positive movement in the off-rebound percentage metric indicating a strengthening foundation for securing possession after missed shots.
  3. Delaware State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – Delaware State is showing marked improvement in its ability to secure rebounds following possessions, a development that signals growing defensive resilience and better transition opportunities for the program.
  4. Howard, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Howard has shown marked improvement in ball security, indicating a positive developmental trend that could enhance their overall play as the season progresses.
  5. Norfolk State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Norfolk State has begun turning over fewer possession opportunities, a refined discipline that is quietly supporting its overall game management this week.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Morgan State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.028 – Morgan State has made significant strides in stifling opposing offenses across all games played this season.
  2. Delaware State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Delaware State is seeing a favorable shift in defensive efficiency as they increasingly disrupt opponent shooting opportunities throughout the season’s early games.
  3. Howard, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – As Howard navigates the opening week of the season, their inability to shut down opposition shooting has become a troubling pattern that undermines defensive credibility.
  4. Coppin State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – The defense has tightened up against opposing shooting since the season opener, marking a clear positive trajectory for Coppin State.
  5. Delaware State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Delaware State is struggling to convert defensive pressure into opponent turnovers, resulting in fewer takeaways than necessary for a balanced attack.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Coppin State

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1337.8 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.07 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Delaware State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1360.7 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.20 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Howard

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1523.4 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.10 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

MD-E Shore

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1335.5 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.30 (ranked 302 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Morgan State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1435.6 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.85 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

NC Central

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1413.0 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.04 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Norfolk State

Record: 0-1 | Elo: 1471.4 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -29.07 (ranked 352 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

S Carolina St

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1435.2 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.33 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

In Week 1, MACD trending indicators reveal a distinct split between teams demonstrating genuine developmental progress and those whose performance may rely on unsustainable momentum. By analyzing magnitude-based metrics across offensive rebounding, turnover differentials, and defensive shooting percentages, we can isolate which squads are establishing consistent patterns versus those struggling to maintain course.

On the offensive front, four teams stand out for strong upward trends in specific value drivers. Delaware State shows a significant improvement in offensive rebounding percentage, currently averaging 0.263 per game with a strongly up trend that signals increasing value generation at the glass. Morgan State matches this trajectory with an even higher average of 0.337 and a correspondingly strong upward momentum, indicating they are consistently securing second-chance opportunities. Meanwhile, MD-E Shore is trending strongly upward in offensive rebounding percentage (Season Avg: 0.287), mirroring the positive direction seen in their conference peers. Howard offers a different kind of offensive efficiency improvement; while not focused on rebounding, the team displays a strong downward trend in turnovers (Season Avg: 0.157). Since turnover count is a negative metric, this decreasing value directly correlates to improved ball security and offensive flow.

Defensively, the analysis highlights divergent trajectories across the conference. Coppin State presents the most promising defensive profile among those analyzed, with opponents shooting 0.55 overall while the team posts a strongly down trend, indicating an effective reduction in points allowed relative to previous performance standards. Delaware State demonstrates dual-threat capability on that end of the floor; they are trending strongly down in opponent shooting percentage (Season Avg: 0.50) and also showing a strongly down trend in allowing opponent turnovers (Season Avg: 0.203). This combination suggests a unit capable of stifling both shot-making efficiency and generating live-ball turnover opportunities. In contrast, Howard’s defensive metrics show cause for concern; their opponents are trending strongly upward in shooting percentage (Season Avg: 0.47), a worsening trend that implies the defense is yielding higher efficiency to offensive counterparts.

Ultimately, these MACD indicators serve as early filters for sustainability. Teams like Coppin State and Delaware State are building momentum through simultaneous improvements in shot suppression and ball disruption, while Howard faces a challenge in reversing defensive shooting efficiency despite their strong offensive rebounding and turnover management. As the season progresses, monitoring whether these initial Week 1 trends hold weight will be critical in predicting long-term conference standing.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMEAC
TagsMEAC Mid-Eastern Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

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