Missouri Valley Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Bradley, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.053 – Bradley’s marked improvement in grabbing offensive rebounds has served as a genuine strength, extending possessions and generating fresh scoring opportunities that significantly boost their overall offensive efficiency.
Drake, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.047 – Drake has demonstrated a marked improvement in securing offensive rebounds, an upward trajectory that will serve as a valuable asset for their upcoming matchups by extending possessions and contributing to their offensive efficiency.
Evansville, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.03 – The improvement in Evansville’s rebounding performance is helping to bolster their overall presence on the boards, which contributes positively to their offensive efficiency.
Evansville, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Evansville shows improvement in ball security by limiting giveaways, contributing positively to their offensive efficiency early in the season.
Drake, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – Drake’s Turnovers is trending up, a worsening trend.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Illinois State, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Illinois State is seeing its defensive rebounding percentage decline as the team fails to secure enough contested boards, allowing opponents more opportunities to generate second-chance points.
Evansville, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Evansville is struggling to generate defensive pressure, as a decline in the ability to force opponent turnovers signals a widening issue that could hinder their overall performance throughout the season.
Drake, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Drake has faced challenges on the defensive glass, a vulnerability that grants opponents extra possessions to stay competitive.
Indiana State, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – Indiana State is showing clear progress by better forcing opponents into turnovers.
Illinois State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Illinois State is finding itself in trouble as its ability to force opponent turnovers declines, signaling a troubling inability to disrupt the ball flow against competition.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Drake, Evansville, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, S Illinois
Trending Down (Efficiency): Bradley, Indiana State, Belmont

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1635.4 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.45 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Bradley

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1571.3 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.03 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Drake

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1535.9 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.97 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Evansville

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1400.2 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.19 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Illinois State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1570.7 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.83 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Indiana State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1453.0 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.99 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Murray State

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1546.4 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.91 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Northern Iowa

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1569.2 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.78 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

S Illinois

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1502.6 (ranked 187 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.17 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

UIC

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1530.8 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.49 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Valparaiso

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1526.4 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.52 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As the first week of competition concludes, MACD momentum indicators reveal distinct shifts in team performance across the league’s statistical landscape. Bradley demonstrates a clear upward trajectory in offensive rebounding percentage, currently sitting at a season average of 0.319 with a trend strongly up; this marked improvement suggests increased value is being generated from their glass efforts. Drake presents a complex profile where ball security has become a critical liability. Their turnover rate is trending strongly up from a season average of approximately 0.181, a decline in performance that directly hinders possession efficiency despite an opposing positive trend where their offensive rebounding percentage is rising from a 0.304 season average. The data further indicates Drake is struggling on the defensive end as well; their defensive rebounding percentage has shifted strongly down from a 0.728 season average, meaning they are allowing more offensive boards to opponents. In a similar defensive downturn, Evansville’s ability to disrupt opponent ball handling is deteriorating. Their forced opponent turnovers metric is trending strongly down from a 0.15 season average, indicating a significant drop in defensive pressure that requires immediate attention. This issue is not isolated to one program, as Illinois State faces a dual decline involving both defense and glass work. The Redbirds are forcing fewer turnovers per game on average, with the trend moving strongly down from a 0.145 season average, while their defensive rebounding percentage has also shifted strongly down from approximately 0.697. These MACD signals confirm that for these specific teams, current performances represent meaningful shifts in underlying quality rather than mere fluctuations, setting the stage for how they will manage the remainder of the season.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC

TagsMissouri Valley Missouri Valley Conference MVC