Patriot League Update: Week 1

Patriot League Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Army, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.054 – The improvement in Army’s offensive rebounding percentage is generating momentum on the boards and enhancing overall scoring opportunities for the unit.
  2. Army, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – The unit has shown marked improvement in its offensive shooting, indicating a developing rhythm that should continue to enhance scoring output throughout the remainder of the season.
  3. Holy Cross, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – A troubling slump in Holy Cross’s shooting has become a significant hurdle, hampering their offensive output and creating a persistent struggle to convert opportunities early in the season.
  4. Holy Cross, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Holy Cross is seeing its off rebounding percentage decline, a troubling trajectory that suggests difficulties in securing rebounds when possession isn’t won directly by the team’s own play.
  5. Lafayette, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – Lafayette is experiencing a troubling decline in ball security as turnover rates increase, creating unnecessary opportunities for opponents and hampering overall team cohesion.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Bucknell, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.033 – Bucknell is struggling defensively as its percentage of rebounds secured on the opponent’s end declines, indicating an inability to limit second-chance opportunities by granting foes more chances at offensive glass.
  2. Colgate, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Colgate’s ability to secure defensive rebounds has shown marked improvement as the team grabs more boards, a positive shift that contributes to limiting opponent opportunities.
  3. Boston U, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Boston U is struggling to protect the glass, as a worsening trend in defensive rebounding percentages suggests the team is allowing too many second-chance opportunities by giving up excessive offensive boards.
  4. Colgate, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – As Colgate opens its season, a troubling decline in forcing opponent turnovers suggests that maintaining ball security will become a significant struggle for the Raiders as they aim to stabilize their defensive identity.
  5. Army, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – The Black Knights are successfully stifling opponents by reducing turnover opportunities for their adversaries, reflecting a positive upward trend in forcing steals and errors throughout their debut games this season.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1459.3 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.95 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Army

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1391.1 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.00 (ranked 293 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Boston U

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1495.9 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.92 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Bucknell

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1399.6 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.94 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Colgate

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1477.7 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.66 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Holy Cross

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1371.8 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.26 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Lafayette

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1390.0 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.87 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Lehigh

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1453.5 (ranked 259 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.67 (ranked 277 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1390.2 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.75 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Navy

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1546.9 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.02 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams progress through their season, MACD trending indicators provide a crucial lens for distinguishing between sustainable improvement and fleeting momentum. Following the conclusion of Week 1, an examination of these metrics reveals distinct patterns in offensive efficiency, rebounding dominance, and defensive disruption across the league’s squads. The magnitude of these trends offers insight into which units are building a foundation for future success versus those facing early challenges.

On the offensive front, Army demonstrates clear signs of positive trajectory. The Black Knights have shown strong upward momentum in both shooting and offensive rebounding percentage, with their season averages indicating consistent growth in these areas as values continue to increase. Conversely, Holy Cross presents a contrasting picture in the same metrics; their shooting and offensive rebounding percentages are trending strongly downward, signaling a worsening ability to generate points from field goals and secure offensive boards. This divergence suggests that while one team is refining its attack, the other may be struggling to maintain previous levels of production.

Defensively, the landscape shows mixed results regarding ball retention and interior protection. Army has successfully improved its defensive identity, specifically in forcing opponent turnovers, a metric where their average indicates a strong upward trend representing enhanced disruptive play. However, Boston University and Bucknell are facing significant hurdles in protecting the paint. Both programs are trending strongly downward in defensive rebounding percentage, meaning they are currently allowing more offensive boards to opponents than previously observed. Additionally, Colgate’s defensive pressure appears to have waned; their average for opponent turnovers is trending strongly down, indicating a decline in the team’s ability to force mistakes from opposing squads.

These early-season trends highlight the volatility inherent in college basketball, where shooting percentages and rebounding differentials can shift rapidly. By focusing on these specific data points—shooting, offensive/defensive rebounding percentages, and opponent turnovers—analysts can better gauge whether a team is genuinely evolving or merely experiencing short-term fluctuations. Further evaluation is necessary as the season progresses to determine which of these directional trends will solidify into long-term performance characteristics.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT
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