Sun Belt Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Appalachian St, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.068 – The team’s increasing share of offensive rebounds has positively influenced their overall performance this week.
Georgia State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.041 – Georgia State is showing marked improvement on the offensive glass, which should aid their ability to secure extra possessions throughout this week’s slate of games.
C. Carolina, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – C. Carolina is grappling with a troubling decline in shooting output that is hampering their offensive momentum and creating early-season hurdles, presenting a significant struggle for the squad as the season gets underway.
Georgia State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Georgia State has shown marked improvement in shooting efficiency, a positive development that is enhancing their overall offensive production for the season.
C. Carolina, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – C. Carolina is struggling with growing turnover issues that are likely hampering their overall offensive execution during this early portion of the season.

Strongest Defensive Trends

C. Carolina, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – C. Carolina is struggling as their ability to prevent opponents from scoring effectively deteriorates throughout the season.
Arkansas State, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Arkansas State is facing increasing difficulty on the defensive glass as opponents are securing more rebounds, signaling a concerning decline in their ability to limit offensive second chances.
Louisiana, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Louisiana’s inability to contest defensive rebounds throughout early games has left them vulnerable on the boards, as opponents consistently secure second chances to drive toward the basket.
Louisiana, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Louisiana is demonstrating a notable improvement in its ability to pressure defenders into committing turnovers, a development that should directly lead to more efficient offensive execution for the team.
Ga Southern, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – As Ga Southern successfully forces more turnovers from opposing squads, this upward trajectory in opponent mistakes signals a growing offensive threat that effectively disrupts game flow and stifles opponents through aggressive defensive pressure.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Georgia State, South Alabama, UL Monroe, James Madison
Trending Down (Efficiency): Arkansas State, C. Carolina, Ga Southern, Louisiana, Troy

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1532.4 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.99 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Arkansas State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1553.4 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.75 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

C. Carolina

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1468.8 (ranked 240 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.29 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ga Southern

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1505.2 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.64 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Georgia State

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1388.3 (ranked 339 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.03 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

James Madison

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1508.8 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.15 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

LA Tech

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1546.3 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.56 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Louisiana

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1419.4 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.65 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Marshall

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1512.0 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.44 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Old Dominion

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1453.3 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.45 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

South Alabama

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1529.8 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.52 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Southern Miss

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1488.1 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.48 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Troy

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1551.4 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.26 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UL Monroe

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1293.6 (ranked 370 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.88 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Applying MACD trending indicators provides a critical lens for distinguishing between genuine improvement and unsustainable momentum in Week 1. Appalachian St stands out as a team trending strongly upward in offensive rebounding percentage (Season Avg: 0.394), suggesting a significant improvement in their ability to extend possessions and create second-chance opportunities. Similarly, Georgia State has demonstrated a strong upward trajectory in shooting efficiency (Season Avg: 0.51). These positive trends indicate that the team’s offensive engine is firing on all cylinders, likely driving scoring output through consistent shot selection and rim presence.

Conversely, C. Carolina presents a mixed picture that warrants close monitoring. While their season average for shooting sits at 0.41, the MACD indicator flags a strong downward trend, signaling a concerning decline in offensive production. This is compounded by a stark worsening in ball security; the team is trending strongly upward in turnover rate (Season Avg: 0.178), which effectively neutralizes scoring efforts and leaves them vulnerable to transition opportunities for opponents.

Defensive consistency also reveals clear divergences within the conference. Arkansas State shows signs of regression on the glass, with a strong downward trend in defensive rebounding percentage (Season Avg: 0.653). This shift implies an inability to secure their own boards, allowing opponents more offensive rebounding opportunities and potentially erasing defensive stops. Furthermore, C. Carolina’s defensive identity appears compromised; they are trending strongly upward in opponent shooting percentage (Season Avg: 0.58), indicating that opponents are capitalizing on inside-outside balance issues or a lack of rim protection.

On the positive side of defensive analytics, two teams are excelling at generating free points. Ga Southern and Louisiana both exhibit strong upward trends in forcing opponent turnovers (Season Avgs: 0.191 and 0.212, respectively). By disrupting ball handling effectively, these squads are converting defensive pressure into transition opportunities. Ultimately, the MACD data highlights that while some teams like Appalachian St and Georgia State are establishing a positive momentum, others face immediate challenges in controlling the offensive glass, protecting the paint, or safeguarding possession.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference