Southland Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Incarnate Word, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.05 – The Incarnate Word squad is encountering growing difficulties securing rebounds after losing possession, a struggle that could hinder their ability to control the tempo of play early in the season.
Houston Baptist, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.032 – Houston Baptist is seeing an upward trajectory in their ability to recover loose balls from their opponents, suggesting a strengthening defensive presence that contributes positively to their overall performance on the court.
New Orleans, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – As New Orleans navigates its early season contests, a downward trajectory in shooting performance is emerging as a notable concern for their offensive development.
Incarnate Word, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – For Incarnate Word entering the season opener, a persistent decline in shooting output has emerged as an early warning sign that threatens to undermine their offensive capabilities throughout the campaign.
Incarnate Word, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – Incarnate Word faces a troubling rise in turnover rate that hampers their offensive momentum and jeopardizes ball security throughout the season.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Houston Baptist, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Houston Baptist has successfully improved its ability to limit opponent shooting efficiency, indicating a growing defensive identity early in the season.
Lamar, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Lamar is struggling defensively as their ability to hold opponents to low shooting percentages continues to deteriorate.
SE Louisiana, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – As SE Louisiana finds themselves yielding more offensive glass to their opposition, their ability to secure defensive rebounds is regressing and becoming a growing source of vulnerability.
Nicholls, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – As the season has progressed for Nicholls, improvements in limiting opponent shooting have provided a distinct competitive edge by making it harder for opposing teams to score efficiently.
Texas A&M-CC, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Texas A&M-CC is struggling to generate defensive stops as their opponent turnover rate declines, signaling a troubling inability to force mistakes from opposing units.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Houston Baptist, SE Louisiana, Texas A&M-CC, Lamar, Texas A&M-Commerce
Trending Down (Efficiency): Incarnate Word, McNeese, New Orleans, Nicholls, Northwestern St

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1398.3 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.23 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1377.7 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.61 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Lamar

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1419.2 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.41 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

McNeese

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1641.0 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.02 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

New Orleans

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1420.5 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.51 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Nicholls

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1465.8 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.32 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Northwestern St

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1395.3 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.30 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SE Louisiana

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1422.7 (ranked 304 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.84 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1597.2 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.62 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1496.3 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.57 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1398.0 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.01 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1494.2 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.46 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

MACD Momentum Analysis: Week 1 Trends

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator serves as a critical tool for distinguishing genuine performance improvement from unsustainable momentum. While early-season volatility is expected, sustained shifts in key metrics reveal where a team’s underlying strengths are emerging or deteriorating. The following analysis focuses exclusively on the specific teams and metrics available for their games so far this season.

Offensive developments show significant divergence across the field. Houston Baptist has demonstrated offensive resilience through rebounding efforts; specifically, their Off Reb Pct, with a season average of 0.284, is trending strongly upward. This metric signifies a meaningful improvement in second-chance scoring opportunities. By consistently increasing their ability to secure defensive rebounds and initiate fast breaks, the team is creating higher-value possessions, suggesting an evolving offensive identity that relies on hustle and board control. Conversely, Incarnate Word faces challenges across multiple facets of their offense. The most concerning development involves ball security; Turnovers, averaging 0.206 per game, are trending strongly upward. In MACD terms, this represents a worsening trend, as the frequency of live-ball errors is increasing, which directly suppresses offensive efficiency. Additionally, Incarnate Word’s shooting performance, with a season average of 0.42, is trending strongly downward. Simultaneously, their rebounding profile has also deteriorated, with Off Reb Pct (Season Avg: 0.2) moving in the wrong direction. The convergence of these three negative indicators paints a picture of an offense struggling to generate high-percentage shots and maintain possession control.

Defensive adjustments define the second half of the analysis. Defensive stability is paramount, yet Incarnate Word’s rebounding struggles are compounding their issues by allowing opponents more opportunities on the offensive glass, further exacerbating their overall inefficiency. Elsewhere, Houston Baptist has shown notable improvement on the defensive end. Their Opp Shooting metric (Season Avg: 0.52) is trending strongly downward. This indicates that opposing teams are finding fewer open looks and making fewer shots over recent games, a clear sign that defensive schemes are successfully contesting perimeter action and limiting opponent efficiency. Nicholls mirrors this defensive progress. Their Opp Shooting (Season Avg: 0.49) is also trending strongly downward. Like Houston Baptist, Nicholls is actively suppressing opponent shot selection and execution, suggesting a tightening of defensive intensity that should translate to better overall game results. SE Louisiana presents an area of concern regarding interior defense; their Def Reb Pct (Season Avg: 0.64) is trending strongly downward. This shift means the team is allowing significantly more offensive rebounds by opponents than in the past. While they hold a high seasonal average for defensive rebounds, the trend toward losing ground on the glass suggests a potential vulnerability that could lead to extended opponent possessions and increased scoring chances against. Finally, Texas A&M-CC has faced an uptick in opponent ball movement. Their Opp Turnovers (Season Avg: 0.163) are trending strongly downward. Crucially, because turnovers are a positive defensive stat for the team conceding them, a downward trend here indicates they are forcing fewer mistakes by opponents than before. This deterioration suggests that Texas A&M-CC may be facing more disciplined offensive units or struggling to create disruptive pressure, potentially leading to smoother opponent offenses and harder defensive battles ahead.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC

TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference