Horizon Update: Week 5

Horizon Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1474.4 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.01 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1356.8 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.61 (ranked 262 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Green Bay

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1354.3 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.50 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

IUPUI

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1318.4 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.29 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Milwaukee

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1531.1 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.75 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

N Kentucky

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1525.7 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.95 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oakland

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1533.4 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.61 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1494.2 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.55 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Robert Morris

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1552.7 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.55 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wright State

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1459.5 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.84 (ranked 125 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1547.2 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.28 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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