Horizon Update: Week 10

Horizon Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1441.4 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.82 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 7-9 | Elo: 1362.7 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.96 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Green Bay

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1415.7 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.67 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

IUPUI

Record: 4-15 | Elo: 1283.2 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.26 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1508.4 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.79 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

N Kentucky

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1534.4 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.72 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oakland

Record: 8-9 | Elo: 1537.1 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.52 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1529.1 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.20 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Robert Morris

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1545.0 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.27 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wright State

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1503.7 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.44 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1494.5 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.32 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

Leave a Reply