SWAC Update: Week 11

SWAC Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The SWAC enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

AR-Pine Bluff

Record: 4-12 | Elo: 1323.8 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.10 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Alabama A&M

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1372.1 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.27 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Alabama State

Record: 5-12 | Elo: 1429.8 (ranked 270 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.05 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Alcorn State

Record: 2-14 | Elo: 1399.6 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.55 (ranked 355 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bethune-Cookman

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1456.3 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.90 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Florida A&M

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1405.4 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.11 (ranked 352 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Grambling

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1418.1 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.68 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Jackson State

Record: 4-13 | Elo: 1448.8 (ranked 253 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.92 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miss Valley St

Record: 1-18 | Elo: 1185.0 (ranked 370 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -41.60 (ranked 365 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

PV A&M

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1333.0 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.54 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Southern

Record: 7-11 | Elo: 1472.7 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.28 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas Southern

Record: 3-12 | Elo: 1395.9 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.32 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SWAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySWAC
TagsSouthwestern Athletic Conference SWAC

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