Big 12 Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 26 – February 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Houston, UCF
Trending Down (Efficiency): Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 22-0 | Elo: 1792.7 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.30 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Arizona State

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1511.3 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.39 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

BYU

Record: 17-4 | Elo: 1703.8 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.37 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Baylor

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1601.1 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.38 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cincinnati

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1554.4 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.53 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Colorado

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1544.2 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.88 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Houston

Record: 19-2 | Elo: 1824.4 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.07 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 20-2 | Elo: 1739.2 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.05 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kansas

Record: 16-5 | Elo: 1694.7 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.10 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Kansas State

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1513.9 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.13 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Oklahoma State

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1580.4 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.56 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

TCU

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1569.3 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.02 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Texas Tech

Record: 16-5 | Elo: 1722.2 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.65 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UCF

Record: 17-4 | Elo: 1641.4 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.33 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Utah

Record: 9-12 | Elo: 1490.8 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.45 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1571.8 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.90 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference