Missouri Valley Update: Week 13

Missouri Valley Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 20-3 | Elo: 1679.0 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.40 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Bradley

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1630.1 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.64 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Drake

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1611.0 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.59 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Evansville

Record: 5-17 | Elo: 1378.8 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.06 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Illinois State

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1578.0 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.08 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Indiana State

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1468.9 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.10 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Murray State

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1564.4 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.38 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Northern Iowa

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1552.7 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.74 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

S Illinois

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1472.0 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.45 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UIC

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1519.1 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.36 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Valparaiso

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1464.8 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.06 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC
TagsMissouri Valley Conference MVC

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