Mountain West Update: Week 13

Mountain West Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Mountain West enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-18 | Elo: 1285.2 (ranked 366 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.23 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Boise State

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1626.8 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.39 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Colorado State

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1596.2 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.35 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Fresno State

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1421.2 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.05 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Grand Canyon

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1645.8 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.58 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Nevada

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1616.7 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.09 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

New Mexico

Record: 18-4 | Elo: 1702.4 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.54 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

San Diego State

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1670.0 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.22 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

San Jose State

Record: 6-16 | Elo: 1393.1 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.13 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1542.6 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.89 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Utah State

Record: 18-3 | Elo: 1710.4 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.96 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Wyoming

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1484.2 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.86 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mountain West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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