American Update: Week 14

American Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1484.1 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.20 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

ECU

Record: 7-16 | Elo: 1425.9 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.85 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

FAU

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1569.7 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.61 (ranked 96 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Memphis

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1627.8 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.29 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

North Texas

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1558.9 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.41 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rice

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1423.2 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.67 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Temple

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1544.2 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.75 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tulane

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1519.1 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.28 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Tulsa

Record: 20-4 | Elo: 1576.4 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.56 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UAB

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1597.6 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.41 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

USF

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1567.2 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.81 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UTSA

Record: 4-19 | Elo: 1331.0 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.02 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wichita State

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1562.9 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.38 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC American
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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