Sun Belt Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Ga Southern, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.033 – Georgia Southern’s rebounding woes are a key contributor to its scoring difficulties.
Arkansas State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Arkansas State’s improved shooting has enabled them to convert a higher percentage of scoring opportunities, thereby contributing significantly to their overall performance and helping to secure more victories in recent games.
Georgia State, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Georgia State’s shooting has been a persistent problem in terms of consistency in their scoring efforts.
Louisiana, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Louisiana’s improved ability to limit opponents’ Off Reb Pct is a key factor in their enhanced overall performance so far this campaign, as they have shown a notable struggle with opponent second-chance scoring opportunities, specifically in terms of allowing opponents to grab 11.4 rebounds per game on the offensive glass.
Louisiana, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – The notable decrease in turnovers indicates a significant adjustment in Louisiana’s game strategy, which has led to improved outcomes.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Texas State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Texas State’s inability to control the boards has been a persistent problem, allowing opponents to capitalize on second-chance opportunities and fuel their scoring attacks.
Texas State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Texas State’s defense struggles to contain opponents’ 3-point attempts, which has led to significant scoring opportunities against them.
Appalachian St, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Appalachian State’s opponents have struggled with their shooting, posing a formidable challenge for the team to overcome.
Louisiana, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – Louisiana’s aggressive defensive approach has led to a notable increase in opponent turnovers, with the team struggling to contain giveaways and excel at forcing interceptions, as well as recovering fumbles, directly contributing to their improved turnover differential that bolsters their chances of winning.
Ga Southern, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Ga Southern’s inability to limit opponent possessions has become a significant struggle, allowing opponents to maintain possession with greater ease.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 16 – February 22, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, C. Carolina, Louisiana, South Alabama
Trending Down (Efficiency): Ga Southern, Georgia State, Troy

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 19-11 | Elo: 1545.2 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.75 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Arkansas State

Record: 17-11 | Elo: 1570.8 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.70 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

C. Carolina

Record: 17-12 | Elo: 1461.5 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.67 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Ga Southern

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1452.7 (ranked 241 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.54 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Georgia State

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1402.7 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.48 (ranked 282 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

James Madison

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1543.4 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.01 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Louisiana

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1419.7 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.43 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Marshall

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1546.3 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.06 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Old Dominion

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1406.2 (ranked 300 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.62 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

South Alabama

Record: 19-9 | Elo: 1580.3 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.55 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Southern Miss

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1447.3 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.18 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Texas State

Record: 18-12 | Elo: 1513.8 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.23 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Troy

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1584.0 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.37 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UL Monroe

Record: 4-25 | Elo: 1244.0 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.74 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Sun Belt Teams Show Varied Momentum as Regular Season Winds Down

As Week 16 comes to a close, several Sun Belt teams are exhibiting notable trends in key offensive and defensive categories. By analyzing these metrics, we can gain insight into which teams are genuinely improving and which may be experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Note:

Arkansas State’s shooting percentage is trending up strongly.
Georgia State’s shooting percentage is trending down.
Louisiana has seen a notable decrease in turnovers.

Defensive Trends to Watch:

Appalachian State’s defense is facing opponents with an average shooting percentage of 0.47 on the season, which is trending upward.
Georgia Southern’s defense has seen an increase in turnovers against them, presenting a challenge for their offense to capitalize.
Louisiana’s defense is becoming more effective at forcing mistakes.

By tracking these trends and momentum indicators, we can better understand which Sun Belt teams are gaining or losing ground as the regular season comes to a close. Next week’s analysis will provide an updated look at the conference’s performance.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference