WAC Update: Week 16

WAC Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Tarleton, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.045 – Tarleton’s struggles with securing Off Rebound Percentage, a trend that has been steadily declining over time, pose a significant challenge to their overall performance as they struggle to regain momentum and control on the court.
  2. Southern Utah, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Southern Utah’s shooting has shown marked improvement, while their overall efficiency remains a focus area for enhancement.
  3. California Baptist, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – California Baptist’s offense has been hindered by its inconsistent shooting from beyond the arc, which is a significant contributor to the team’s downward trend in performance and overall struggles on the court.
  4. Abil Christian, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Abil Christian’s defense has struggled to protect the paint, as their failure to secure rebounds from opponents has become a recurring issue in their defensive strategy.
  5. Utah Valley, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Utah Valley’s shooting struggles in Week 16 have hindered their overall performance, with a notable issue being their inability to convert shots at a rate that matches their season average.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Utah Valley, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Utah Valley’s ability to force turnovers has become an important factor in its gameplay, forcing the team to focus on responding to opponents’ mistakes and gaining momentum in the game.
  2. Utah Tech, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Utah Tech’s defense has struggled to contain increasingly effective shooting from their opponents, posing a significant problem for the team as they try to navigate their competitive schedule.
  3. Utah Valley, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Utah Valley’s defense has struggled with securing defensive rebounds, resulting in opponents being given second-chance opportunities during conference play.
  4. Tarleton, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Tarleton’s defensive efforts are being compromised as their opponents’ improved shooting percentages present a significant challenge for the team to maintain its performance on the court, with Tarleton struggling to adapt to this shift in strategy.
  5. Utah Tech, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Utah Tech’s inability to force turnovers has been a notable issue for the team in its continued struggles against opponents this week.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for WAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Abil Christian

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1462.8 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.23 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

California Baptist

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1576.0 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.97 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Southern Utah

Record: 9-19 | Elo: 1386.4 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.10 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Tarleton

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1447.9 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.45 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UT Arlington

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1484.2 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.12 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Utah Tech

Record: 16-12 | Elo: 1475.9 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.64 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Utah Valley

Record: 20-7 | Elo: 1636.8 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.93 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

WAC Week 16 Wrap-up: Teams Show Varied Improvement

As the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) season continues, some teams are demonstrating improvement, while others may be struggling to maintain their performance. This week’s analysis focuses on key trends that highlight both positive and negative developments.

Offensive Trends to Note

Utah Valley’s shooting percentage is trending down to 0.55, indicating a problem with their offense. Conversely, Utah Tech has seen an improvement in opponents’ shooting percentages, suggesting they are becoming more formidable on the defensive end. California Baptist’s shooting percentage has also declined, further exacerbating their poor performance.

Defensive Trends to Watch

Utah Valley’s ability to force turnovers is improving strongly, with an uptick in opponents’ turnover rates. This could be a key factor in their future success. Abil Christian is experiencing difficulties with their shooting percentage, which has been trending down consistently this season.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator will continue to play a crucial role in identifying which teams are truly improving versus those relying on fleeting success. MACD measures the difference between a team’s 12-day moving average and its price or rating over a specified time period. Stay tuned for next week’s analysis, where we’ll revisit these trends and provide further insights into the WAC’s competitive landscape.

Tarleton is showing improvement in forcing turnovers, with an increase in opponents’ turnover rates.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWAC
TagsWAC Western Athletic Conference

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