Big East Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Creighton, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Creighton’s inconsistent shooting has hindered their ability to maintain a consistent flow of offense, leading to difficulties in scoring and impacting their overall performance on the court.
DePaul, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – DePaul’s improvement on turnover defense and enhanced free throw shooting have been critical factors in their performance, contributing to more consistent offense.
Butler, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Butler’s field goal percentage has been a problem for the team, particularly in their recent performance.
Georgetown, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – Georgetown’s struggles on both ends of the court stem from their propensity for committing turnovers, ultimately compromising defensive assignments and allowing opponents to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Butler, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Butler’s turnover struggles persist, continuing to pose a problem for their game strategy.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Butler, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Butler’s defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses, particularly in limiting high-volume three-point attempts within the Big East conference, where they have faced several top-ranked shooting teams over time.
Butler, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Butler’s defensive presence on the glass has made them a force to be reckoned with in securing crucial rebounds, effectively neutralizing their opponents’ advantages and turning what was once a struggle into a major strength.
Creighton, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Creighton’s defense has been hindered by a trend of struggling free throw shooting, which directly correlates with their inability to contain opposing teams’ scoring opportunities from within the arc.
Marquette, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Marquette’s ability to limit opponents’ shooting percentage has resulted in a notable increase in defensive consistency, as evidenced by their conference play performance, where they have consistently ranked among the top teams in terms of fewest points allowed per game.
DePaul, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – DePaul’s defensive strategy has proven to be a significant problem for opponents, forcing them into turnovers that severely limit their shot attempts and hinder their ability to mount a coherent offense.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 23 – March 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier
Trending Down (Efficiency): Butler, Creighton, DePaul, St John’s, Villanova

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1516.5 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.15 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Creighton

Record: 14-16 | Elo: 1575.4 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.70 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

DePaul

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1501.6 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.23 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Georgetown

Record: 13-16 | Elo: 1473.8 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.14 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Marquette

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1529.3 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.98 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Providence

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1516.9 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.17 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Seton Hall

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1549.2 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.31 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

St John’s

Record: 23-6 | Elo: 1754.4 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.32 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UConn

Record: 27-3 | Elo: 1789.8 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.36 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Villanova

Record: 22-7 | Elo: 1667.7 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.85 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Xavier

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1546.3 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.10 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big East Teams Show Improvement in Key Metrics

As the Big East conference continues its season, a closer look at key trends reveals both positive and negative developments for several teams.

Butler’s turnover rate has seen an uptick this season (Season Avg: 0.145), indicating improved ball control. However, the team’s shooting percentage has decreased (Season Avg: 0.52), posing a challenge in converting shots into points.

Creighton’s offense has struggled with its shooting percentage this season (Season Avg: 0.53), which presents a problem for the Bluejays’ scoring.

DePaul has shown improvement on both ends of the court, specifically in its offensive rebounding percentage (Season Avg: 0.285), securing second-chance opportunities more effectively.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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TagsBE Big East Big East Conference