WAC Update: Week 17

WAC Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Abil Christian, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Abil Christian’s inability to secure rebounds in Week 17 has led to a decline in their defensive performance, which is causing concern for their overall standing.
  2. Utah Tech, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – Utah Tech’s struggle on the glass, particularly in securing offensive rebounds, has hindered their ability to capitalize on additional scoring chances.
  3. UT Arlington, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – UT Arlington’s shooting has been plagued by a lack of accuracy, contributing to their inability to deliver a scoring punch this season.
  4. Southern Utah, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Southern Utah’s shooting woes have been a significant contributor to their subpar performance this season, plagued by struggles with efficiency and inaccuracy from beyond the arc, ultimately hindering their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  5. California Baptist, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – California Baptist’s significant reduction in turnovers presents an opportunity for analysis, as this shift could potentially mask underlying issues that hinder their success.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. California Baptist, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.032 – California Baptist’s struggles in securing rebounds on defense are stifling their offense and allowing opponents to capitalize on their inability to defend the paint, which has become a significant problem for the Lancers.
  2. Utah Valley, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Utah Valley’s struggle with securing defensive rebounds, specifically in terms of their Utah Valley: Def Reb Pct trend, has been allowing opponents to secure more defensive rebounds, putting them at a disadvantage.
  3. California Baptist, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – California Baptist’s defense has been struggling to contain their opponents’ shooting prowess, a trend that poses significant concerns about the team’s ability to execute their strategy effectively in upcoming matches.
  4. Utah Tech, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Utah Tech’s defense continues to struggle with forcing turnovers, a negative trend that worsens their ability to disrupt opponents’ scoring opportunities, highlighting a clear cause-and-effect relationship between these two metrics.
  5. Utah Valley, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Utah Valley has been consistently forcing opponents into turnovers, a trend that underscores their defensive prowess by limiting scoring opportunities and creating valuable possessions for themselves.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for WAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Abil Christian

Record: 13-16 | Elo: 1452.6 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.50 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

California Baptist

Record: 21-8 | Elo: 1585.1 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.00 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Southern Utah

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1396.3 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.21 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Tarleton

Record: 14-16 | Elo: 1440.6 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.12 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UT Arlington

Record: 15-13 | Elo: 1479.2 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.79 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Utah Tech

Record: 17-13 | Elo: 1472.8 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.76 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Utah Valley

Record: 22-7 | Elo: 1643.3 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.16 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

WAC Analysis Wrap-Up: Week 17

As the regular season winds down, we examine key trends from the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) teams to better understand their prospects moving forward.

On offense, several trends stand out:

  • California Baptist’s improved turnover rate is a positive indicator of sustained progress. Their reduced turnover rate indicates enhanced ball control and decision-making.
  • Utah Tech’s performance on the glass has worsened, struggling with a strongly declining rebounding percentage. This decline may impact their scoring efficiency and overall team production.
  • Tarleton faces challenges on the boards, as their rebounding percentage continues to decrease. If this trend persists, it could negatively affect their ability to secure second-chance opportunities.
  • Abil Christian’s off-rebounding percentage is also a concern, with a significant decline in their ability to secure rebounds on the defensive end.
  • Southern Utah’s shooting percentage has seen a strong increase, indicating potential for sustained scoring efficiency.

On defense, several trends are worth noting:

  • Utah Valley’s improvements are notable, particularly in forcing turnovers from opponents. This positive development should enhance their defensive capabilities.
  • However, their defensive rebounding percentage has trended downward strongly. Allowing more offensive boards can be detrimental to their team’s overall performance and scoring efficiency.
  • California Baptist also boasts defensive credentials, with an improvement on the defensive end resulting in opponents shooting at a lower rate than their season average. This is reflected in an improved opponent shooting percentage, indicating sustained momentum.
  • Furthermore, California Baptist’s defensive rebounding percentage has declined, which may lead to difficulties in securing key possessions.

These trends offer valuable insights into each team’s performance and potential for growth moving forward.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWAC
TagsWAC Western Athletic Conference

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