Big Ten Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Minnesota, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – Minnesota’s inability to sustain consistent offense has been further complicated by their struggles on the offensive glass, where they continue to falter in securing key rebounds and second-chance opportunities.
Indiana, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Indiana’s inability to secure rebounds consistently hampers their scoring opportunities and contributes to their struggles on offense, a problem exacerbated by their mediocre free throw shooting.
Iowa, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Iowa’s inconsistent shooting creates uncertainty that disrupts their scoring rhythm and performance in games, resulting in a significant challenge for their offense to maintain consistency.
Minnesota, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Minnesota’s improved shooting from beyond the arc has contributed to a significant increase in their scoring output, with a notable surge of 3 three-point makes per game this week as they navigate the conference schedule. This trend is particularly crucial for Minnesota’s success, given the emphasis on increased free throw accuracy and consistent high-volume rebounding, and it remains to be seen whether this newfound efficiency can be sustained over the course of the season.
Illinois, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Illinois’ ability to reduce total turnovers significantly contributes to their improved performance, as they’re better able to maintain a strong offense and defense by minimizing errors that can hinder their scoring opportunities.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Iowa, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.026 – Iowa’s inability to contain their opponents’ scoring has become a pressing concern in the Big Ten conference, where they have struggled to adapt to changing strategies and improve their defensive cohesion.
Indiana, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – Indiana’s defense has struggled to contain opponents, particularly in recent weeks as teams have seen a significant decline in shooting accuracy against them, which has severely impacted their overall performance, specifically evident when observing that their opponents’ shooting percentage has dropped to 42.1% on the road and 40.9% at home this season.
Iowa, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – Iowa’s defensive struggles on the glass have allowed opponents to control possession, a trend exemplified by their 32 boards surrendered in the last four games against Big Ten opponents.
Maryland, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – Maryland has shown improvement in securing key defensive rebounds, but this progress has been tempered by a lingering issue with timely offense, particularly evident in their last three conference games where they averaged just 65 points per game.
Maryland, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – The Terrapins’ struggles with forcing turnovers have limited their chances of creating scoring opportunities.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: March 02 – March 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern
Trending Down (Efficiency): Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 24-7 | Elo: 1718.8 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.66 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Indiana

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1597.5 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.09 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Iowa

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1608.8 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.49 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Maryland

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1528.9 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.49 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Michigan

Record: 29-2 | Elo: 1807.8 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +41.67 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Michigan State

Record: 25-6 | Elo: 1759.3 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.13 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Minnesota

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1523.4 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.87 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Nebraska

Record: 26-5 | Elo: 1697.9 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.74 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1517.3 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.32 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Ohio State

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1628.0 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.19 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Oregon

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1551.7 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.82 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1473.1 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.29 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Purdue

Record: 23-8 | Elo: 1720.9 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.96 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rutgers

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1505.1 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.58 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UCLA

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1660.7 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.22 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

USC

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1551.6 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.21 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Washington

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1514.5 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.82 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Wisconsin

Record: 22-9 | Elo: 1697.3 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.67 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big Ten Teams’ Momentum Shifts in Week 18 Analysis

As the Big Ten season continues, several teams are exhibiting notable trends in key offensive and defensive categories. Our analysis highlights areas of improvement and decline for each team.

Illinois Demonstrates Improved Ball Security

One team showcasing a positive trend is Illinois, which has a strong downward trajectory in its turnover rate. This indicates that the team’s offense is becoming more efficient in managing possession. With this momentum, Illinois’ ability to limit turnovers will be crucial in maintaining its competitive edge.

Indiana Faces Challenges with Rebounding and Shooting

In contrast, Indiana struggles on both ends of the court. On defense, opponents are shooting at an increasing rate against the Hoosiers, which could hinder their team’s defensive performance. Furthermore, Indiana faces a problem in rebounding, as its off-rebound percentage is trending down.

Iowa Experiences Worsening Trends

The Hawkeyes experience difficulties with scoring efficiency and opponents’ shooting. Iowa’s shooting has declined significantly, indicating a decrease in their ability to score points effectively. Additionally, opponents are shooting at an increasing rate against Iowa, which could further exacerbate this issue.

Minnesota Shows Promise

On a positive note, Minnesota exhibits a strong trend in shooting efficiency. This improvement could contribute to increased scoring efficiency for the team and provide a boost to its overall performance.

Maryland Demonstrates Defensive Strengths

Meanwhile, Maryland has shown improvement in opponents’ turnover rates. This indicates that the team’s defense is becoming more effective at forcing turnovers. This trend suggests that Maryland’s defensive strategy is paying dividends and will be crucial in future matchups.

These trends will continue to shape the Big Ten landscape as teams navigate their seasons, with some exhibiting signs of improvement and others facing challenges.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference