Big Ten Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Maryland, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.043 – The improvement seen in Maryland’s off rebounding percentage reflects a positive adjustment that contributes to their overall defensive stability.
Indiana, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.026 – Indiana shows signs of improved performance in rebounding efficiency, contributing to stronger overall possession management early in the season.
Illinois, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Illinois demonstrates an upward trajectory in its rebounding success rate that contributes positively to its overall possession efficiency.
Iowa, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – As Iowa begins its season, improvements in rebounding percentages are helping drive the program forward.
Iowa, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Iowa has shown marked improvement in its shooting performance, a shift that contributes significantly to enhanced offensive efficiency throughout the early part of the season.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Iowa, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Iowa’s defense is showing signs of improvement by stifling opponents effectively as they hold teams to lower shooting percentages throughout the season.
Illinois, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – Illinois has demonstrated an improving capability to suppress opposition shooting efficiency throughout the early season.
Indiana, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Indiana faces an escalating challenge as its ability to hinder opponents’ shooting continues to decline throughout the season’s opening week.
Indiana, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Indiana is showing signs of improvement in rebounding by securing more defensive boards, which effectively limits opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Illinois, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Illinois is showing an encouraging uptick in its ability to secure defensive rebounds as the team continues to gather more glass from the opposition.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota
Trending Down (Efficiency): Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1684.5 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +52.48 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Indiana

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1572.5 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.03 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Iowa

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1613.7 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.53 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Maryland

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1521.7 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.13 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Michigan

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1757.8 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.61 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Michigan State

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1697.5 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.39 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Minnesota

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1520.0 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.45 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Nebraska

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1656.0 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.25 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1535.4 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.06 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Ohio State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1589.1 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.16 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Oregon

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1544.3 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.17 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1478.2 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.32 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Purdue

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1673.6 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.32 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rutgers

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1508.2 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.82 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UCLA

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1646.4 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.37 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

USC

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1548.7 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.76 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Washington

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1522.9 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.06 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Wisconsin

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1654.0 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.49 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

In Week 1, MACD trending indicators clarify which squads are demonstrating genuine improvement versus those relying on unsustainable momentum. The analysis focuses strictly on the available data for Illinois and Indiana, highlighting where strategic adjustments are yielding results or where performance regresses.

Illinois emerges as a team showing consistent upward trajectory across multiple facets of play. On the offensive end, the Illini have improved their offensive rebounding percentage, with a season average of 0.48 trending strongly upward; this indicates an increasing ability to generate second-chance points. Simultaneously, the defense has tightened its grip on opponent shooting accuracy. With opponents shooting at a season average of 0.33, Illinois is displaying a strong downward trend in that metric, signifying a decline in efficiency for opposing offenses and a strengthening defensive presence. Furthermore, the team is enhancing its control on the glass from a defensive standpoint, as their defensive rebounding percentage has risen strongly over the course of games played to a season average of 0.81.

Indiana presents a mixed statistical profile that warrants close observation. While the Hoosiers have successfully improved their defensive rebounding percentage to a season average of 0.77, showing a strong upward trend in securing boards against opponents, they are facing significant challenges on the other end of the floor. Indiana’s own offensive shooting has shown a strong upward trend with a season average of 0.53; however, within the context of this specific dataset, such an increase is flagged as worsening performance, indicating a decline in scoring efficiency. This regression suggests that while Indiana is holding its own on defensive possessions, their ability to convert field goals is not meeting current standards. Conversely, on the other end of the floor, Indiana’s offensive rebounding percentage sits at a season average of 0.41 and is trending strongly up.

The initial week concludes with these specific data points in mind. For Illinois, the combination of lowering opponent shooting and raising defensive rebounding efficiency suggests a well-rounded improvement. Indiana’s narrative is defined by a sharp decline in offensive shooting despite gains in defensive rebounding. Iowa’s story is one of robust offensive growth across both shooting and rebounding categories, boasting a shooting season average of 0.65 trending strongly up, while their offensive rebounding percentage sits at a season average of 0.364 and is also trending strongly up. As the season progresses, continued tracking of these specific metrics will be essential to determine if these early-week trends sustain themselves or if they represent short-term anomalies.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference