SWAC Update: Week 1
November 9, 2026Strongest Offensive Trends
- Alabama A&M, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.086 – The improvement in Alabama A&M’s rebounding percentage suggests an evolving ability to secure second-chance opportunities, which naturally feeds back into their overall offensive production.
- PV A&M, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.071 – PV A&M is displaying marked improvement in its ability to grab offensive rebounds, a positive development that helps stabilize their possession flow and extend scoring opportunities after missed shots.
- Grambling, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Grambling is facing a troubling decline in its rebounding performance, with the team’s ability to secure second-chance points deteriorating over the course of the season so far.
- AR-Pine Bluff, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – An increase in turnovers by AR-Pine Bluff this week is creating difficulties for their offensive execution as they enter the season.
- Miss Valley St, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – The University of Mississippi Valley State has demonstrated an upward trajectory in its ability to secure rebounds offensively, a developing strength that contributes to improved possession opportunities throughout the early portion of the season.
Strongest Defensive Trends
- AR-Pine Bluff, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – The AR-Pine Bluff defense is struggling with a troubling slump in rebounding that leaves them unable to secure the boards, inadvertently fueling their opponents’ second-chance opportunities and stifling their own momentum early this season.
- PV A&M, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – PV A&M is showing signs of improved defensive identity by successfully stifling their opponents from finding an efficient shooting rhythm on the other end of the floor.
- Alabama State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Alabama State is struggling to generate opponent turnovers during the current season.
- Alcorn State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – As Alcorn State navigates the season, a troubling dynamic has taken hold where the team fails to generate opponent turnovers while struggling with persistent ball security issues that undermine their performance.
- Jackson State, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Jackson State has shown marked improvement in pressuring opposing ball handlers into committing turnovers throughout its early season games.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Alabama A&M, Grambling, Miss Valley St, PV A&M
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Alabama State, Alcorn State, AR-Pine Bluff, Jackson State, Southern
Team-by-Team Analysis
AR-Pine Bluff
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1376.1 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -36.26 (ranked 359 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Alabama A&M
Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1392.5 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.46 (ranked 341 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Alabama State
Record: 0-1 | Elo: 1405.5 (ranked 319 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.89 (ranked 320 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Alcorn State
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1388.1 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -39.43 (ranked 363 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Bethune-Cookman
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1481.9 (ranked 221 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.62 (ranked 289 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Florida A&M
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1439.5 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.41 (ranked 355 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Grambling
Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1420.1 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.77 (ranked 265 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Jackson State
Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1456.2 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.38 (ranked 316 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Miss Valley St
Record: 0-1 | Elo: 1246.3 (ranked 371 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -32.14 (ranked 356 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
PV A&M
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1424.4 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.33 (ranked 315 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Southern
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1468.2 (ranked 241 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.86 (ranked 304 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Texas Southern
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1420.3 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.16 (ranked 349 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
The MACD momentum indicators reveal distinct trajectories in team performance across the league through the initial games of the season. On the offensive side, Alabama A&M and Miss Valley St demonstrate strong upward trends in their Off Reb Pct relative to seasonal averages of 1.0 and 0.298, respectively. This data signals meaningful improvement in glass work for both squads as they generate more secondary opportunities. Conversely, Grambling exhibits a strong downward trend in Off Reb Pct from a season average of 0.215. This deterioration indicates the team struggles to maintain possession on defensive rebounds, potentially ceding transition scoring advantages to opponents.
Defensively, the landscape presents a mixed picture regarding turnover generation and rebounding discipline. Jackson State stands out with a strong upward trend in Opp Turnovers relative to a 0.166 season average, reflecting an enhanced ability to disrupt opponent possession and force mistakes. However, Alabama State and Alcorn State both display concerning downward trends in Opp Turnovers, with season averages of 0.153 and 0.148, respectively. For these programs, the data signifies a decline in defensive pressure, as they are currently forcing fewer turnovers than their seasonal baseline, which could leave them vulnerable to sustained opponent runs. Additionally, AR-Pine Bluff is trending strongly downward in Def Reb Pct from a 0.564 season average. This shift implies the team struggles with rebounding discipline on the defensive end, allowing more offensive boards to opponents and complicating their defensive transition.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
