SEC Update: Week 3

SEC Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1705.3 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.39 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Arkansas

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1612.3 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.01 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Auburn

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1736.2 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.74 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Florida

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1745.4 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.67 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Georgia

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1587.6 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.02 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Kentucky

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1636.5 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.61 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

LSU

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1520.9 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.45 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Miss St

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1572.1 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.08 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Missouri

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1583.1 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.77 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Oklahoma

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1568.8 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.39 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Ole Miss

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1632.2 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.78 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

South Carolina

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1512.2 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.99 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Tennessee

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1722.9 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.50 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Texas

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1573.2 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.08 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Texas A&M

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1622.2 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.42 (ranked 124 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Vanderbilt

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1580.8 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.76 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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