WAC Update: Week 5

WAC Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The WAC enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for WAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Abil Christian

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1502.1 (ranked 183 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.07 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

California Baptist

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1537.5 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.61 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Southern Utah

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1393.4 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.66 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Tarleton

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1486.1 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.82 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UT Arlington

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1497.1 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.98 (ranked 158 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Utah Tech

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1377.5 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.02 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Utah Valley

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1612.7 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.17 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As WAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWAC
TagsWAC Western Athletic Conference

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