Conference USA Update: Week 13

Conference USA Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Conference USA enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 6-14 | Elo: 1422.0 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.81 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

FIU

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1404.1 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.92 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Jacksonville St

Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1511.8 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.12 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Kennesaw State

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1532.9 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.24 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

LA Tech

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1534.6 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.04 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Liberty

Record: 18-3 | Elo: 1684.1 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.86 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1526.3 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.06 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Missouri State

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1462.2 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.65 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

New Mexico St

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1454.6 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.30 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Sam Houston

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1564.5 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.90 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UTEP

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1432.4 (ranked 270 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.15 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

W Kentucky

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1506.4 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.26 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Conference USA teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA
TagsConference USA CUSA

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