Northeast Update: Week 13

Northeast Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Northeast enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1509.8 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.32 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Cent Conn St

Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1512.7 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.29 (ranked 262 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Chicago State

Record: 3-19 | Elo: 1280.4 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.87 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 7-16 | Elo: 1357.0 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.17 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Le Moyne

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1413.9 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.06 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Mercyhurst

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1450.4 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.09 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

New Haven

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1469.9 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.47 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

St Francis (PA)

Record: 6-15 | Elo: 1370.7 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.19 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Stonehill

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1395.5 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.92 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Wagner

Record: 5-12 | Elo: 1373.1 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.13 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Northeast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC
TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference

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