Southern Update: Week 13

Southern Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Southern enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1532.6 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.99 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

ETSU

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1559.5 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.38 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Furman

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1593.4 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.40 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Mercer

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1515.1 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.39 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Samford

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1539.7 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.62 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

The Citadel

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1305.3 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.01 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UNCG

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1455.1 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.31 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

VMI

Record: 4-17 | Elo: 1315.8 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.00 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

W Carolina

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1417.2 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.04 (ranked 302 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Wofford

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1558.9 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.34 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySOCON
TagsSOCON Southern Southern Conference

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