SWAC Update: Week 13

SWAC Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The SWAC enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

AR-Pine Bluff

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1339.5 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.38 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Alabama A&M

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1395.6 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.99 (ranked 319 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Alabama State

Record: 6-15 | Elo: 1409.1 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.34 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Alcorn State

Record: 4-16 | Elo: 1401.8 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.04 (ranked 358 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Bethune-Cookman

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1488.9 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.71 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Florida A&M

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1399.3 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.44 (ranked 352 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Grambling

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1432.0 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.37 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Jackson State

Record: 6-15 | Elo: 1445.9 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.71 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Miss Valley St

Record: 1-21 | Elo: 1167.9 (ranked 370 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -41.71 (ranked 365 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

PV A&M

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1316.0 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.94 (ranked 336 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Southern

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1449.5 (ranked 253 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.00 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Texas Southern

Record: 5-14 | Elo: 1395.1 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.59 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SWAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySWAC
TagsSouthwestern Athletic Conference SWAC

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