WAC Update: Week 13

WAC Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The WAC enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for WAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Abil Christian

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1456.5 (ranked 240 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.43 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

California Baptist

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1577.5 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.15 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Southern Utah

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1401.1 (ranked 304 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.08 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tarleton

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1446.8 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.44 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

UT Arlington

Record: 14-7 | Elo: 1525.1 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.54 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Utah Tech

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1436.8 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.85 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Utah Valley

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1626.1 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.75 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As WAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWAC
TagsWAC Western Athletic Conference

Leave a Reply