Big Ten Update: Week 14

The Big Ten enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

• Week Dates: February 02 – February 08, 2026
• Trending Up (Efficiency): Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota
• Trending Down (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State

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Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 20-4 | Elo: 1727.3 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.73 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Indiana

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1627.6 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.52 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Iowa

Record: 18-5 | Elo: 1642.9 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.23 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Maryland

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1562.5 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.08 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Michigan

Record: 22-1 | Elo: 1767.0 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.88 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Michigan State

Record: 20-4 | Elo: 1741.3 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.07 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Minnesota

Record: 11-13 | Elo: 1497.7 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.34 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Nebraska

Record: 21-2 | Elo: 1702.4 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.24 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1508.5 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.19 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Ohio State

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1603.0 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.95 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Oregon

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1544.5 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.76 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1485.8 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.02 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Purdue

Record: 19-4 | Elo: 1738.5 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.36 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Rutgers

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1483.4 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.89 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UCLA

Record: 17-7 | Elo: 1646.6 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.42 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

USC

Record: 18-6 | Elo: 1618.0 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.47 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Washington

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1521.3 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.72 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Wisconsin

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1661.6 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.54 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

• Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
• Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

• Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
• Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

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Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

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Looking Ahead

As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

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Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

• eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
• TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
• OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
• FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

• Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
• Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

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Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.