Atlantic Sun Update: Week 15

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Top Offensive Trends in Atlantic Sun Conference

• Jacksonville is doing a great job limiting turnovers.
• Stetson’s shooting performance is strongly improving, positively affecting their scoring output, with a notable increase in made shots per game versus stronger competition.
• Bellarmine’s shooting performance is also strongly improving, enhancing their overall offense, particularly versus stronger teams.
• North Alabama’s turnover struggles continue to be a problem, negatively impacting their ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities versus weaker competition.

Strongest Defensive Trends

• Lipscomb’s Opponent Shooting is a Problem: The Bisons are struggling to contain opponents’ shooting, allowing their scoring opportunities to improve versus weaker competition.

• North Florida’s Defensive Rebound Percentage is Improving: North Florida is turning a corner in terms of defensive rebounding, stifling opponents on the glass and controlling possession versus stronger competition. This trend marks a positive shift for the Ospreys.

• Cent Arkansas is Forcing More Turnovers: The Bears are tightening up their defense, forcing more turnovers from opposing teams and creating scoring opportunities for themselves versus weaker competition. This trend has become a problem for opponents facing Cent Arkansas.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 19-6 | Elo: 1556.7 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.96 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Bellarmine

Record: 11-15 | Elo: 1367.7 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.26 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1470.6 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.53 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

E Kentucky

Record: 9-18 | Elo: 1426.2 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.71 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

FGCU

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1457.9 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.33 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Jacksonville

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1423.3 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.38 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Lipscomb

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1552.3 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.93 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

North Alabama

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1430.0 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.27 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 6-21 | Elo: 1359.8 (ranked 339 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.07 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Queens University

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1507.7 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.41 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Stetson

Record: 9-18 | Elo: 1363.9 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.83 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 12-14 | Elo: 1388.7 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.02 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Atlantic Sun Week 15 Wrap-Up

As we analyze key trends in the Atlantic Sun conference, it’s essential to understand which teams are genuinely improving and which are experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Highlight:

  • Jacksonville: The Dolphins have made significant strides in reducing turnovers (Season Avg: 0.172) versus weaker competition. This improvement indicates a more efficient offense.
  • Stetson: The Hatters’ shooting has seen a notable uptick (Season Avg: 0.51) versus stronger competition. Specifically, Stetson’s Opp Shooting Pct has increased to 45% versus stronger competition.

Defensive Trends to Highlight:

  • Lipscomb: The Bisons have struggled with opponents shooting effectively against them (Opp Shooting Pct: 54%) versus weaker competition. This decline in defensive prowess could lead to issues for Lipscomb in future matches.
  • North Alabama: North Alabama’s defense has been impacted by an increase in turnovers forced by their opponents (Turnovers Forc. per game: 0.182) versus stronger competition, indicating a worsening trend.

In conclusion, teams in the Atlantic Sun conference have displayed varying degrees of improvement and decline across key metrics. By focusing on these trends, we can better understand which teams are genuinely making strides towards success and which may be experiencing temporary momentum.

Summary: The Atlantic Sun conference’s performance reveals both positive and negative trends among its teams. Jacksonville has made significant strides in reducing turnovers, while Lipscomb struggles with opponents’ shooting effectiveness. Stetson’s offense has become more potent, but North Alabama’s defense is worsening by allowing more turnovers versus stronger competition.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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