Big Sky Update: Week 1

Big Sky Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Idaho, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.071 – Idaho has shown marked improvement in its rebounding percentage, suggesting an enhanced ability to secure second-chance opportunities on the glass.
  2. Montana, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.041 – Montana has shown improvement in securing rebounds off turnovers, a positive development that aids their overall possession control early in the season.
  3. Idaho State, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Idaho State is grappling with a troubling drop in shooting output during their early-season slate, a struggle that is significantly hindering their offensive production.
  4. Idaho, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Idaho has successfully refined its ball security, marking a clear positive trend for the team’s overall play since the start of the season.
  5. Idaho State, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – Idaho State faces a growing struggle with turnovers that is significantly hampering their overall offensive execution this season.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Idaho State, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.038 – Idaho State’s defensive rebounding is trending in a troubling direction, allowing opponents to grab extra offensive boards and extend their possessions, which ultimately hinders the program from controlling game tempo when victory would otherwise be within reach.
  2. Idaho, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – The Idaho squad is showing a marked improvement in securing defensive rebounds, indicating a growing ability to stifle opponents by controlling the glass.
  3. E Washington, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Early in the season, E Washington faces a troubling inability to stop opponents from advancing the ball, revealing a defensive struggle that has allowed rivals easy scoring chances instead of keeping their rivals at bay.
  4. Montana, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Montana is finding itself in trouble as its ability to force opponent turnovers continues to decline, allowing the opposition more opportunities to keep possession.
  5. Idaho, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – Idaho is experiencing a troubling regression in defensive stability as the unit increasingly fails to force opponent turnovers, hindering their ability to disrupt opposing offenses early in the season.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1457.5 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.48 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Idaho

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1490.3 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.92 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Idaho State

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1402.8 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.87 (ranked 336 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Montana

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1516.0 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.73 (ranked 206 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Montana State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1499.9 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.23 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

N Arizona

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1385.0 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.88 (ranked 279 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

N Colorado

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1530.4 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.35 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Portland State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1512.7 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.76 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Southern Utah

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1376.4 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.45 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Utah Tech

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1473.3 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.30 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Weber State

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1445.6 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.40 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC
TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference BSC

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