ACC Update: Week 13

ACC Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 9-12 | Elo: 1450.8 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.23 (ranked 125 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cal

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1539.5 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.35 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Clemson

Record: 18-4 | Elo: 1706.2 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.96 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Duke

Record: 20-1 | Elo: 1823.3 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.91 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Florida State

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1506.4 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.51 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Georgia Tech

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1491.5 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.37 (ranked 124 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1642.0 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.17 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Miami

Record: 17-5 | Elo: 1542.0 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.62 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

NC State

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1601.9 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.96 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Notre Dame

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1492.7 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.32 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Pitt

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1492.3 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.43 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

SMU

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1621.7 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.71 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stanford

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1559.7 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.32 (ranked 92 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1528.4 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.70 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UNC

Record: 17-4 | Elo: 1686.4 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.41 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UVA

Record: 18-3 | Elo: 1650.7 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.38 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Virginia Tech

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1567.9 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.33 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1548.5 (ranked 114 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.33 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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