American Update: Week 13

American Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1494.1 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.32 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

ECU

Record: 7-15 | Elo: 1436.0 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.44 (ranked 280 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

FAU

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1582.8 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.91 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Memphis

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1611.0 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.19 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

North Texas

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1563.4 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.69 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Rice

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1415.3 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.47 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Temple

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1534.2 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.84 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Tulane

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1531.4 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.10 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Tulsa

Record: 19-3 | Elo: 1571.2 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.24 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

UAB

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1606.7 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.88 (ranked 134 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

USF

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1556.5 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.98 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UTSA

Record: 4-17 | Elo: 1340.7 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.45 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wichita State

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1544.7 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.64 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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