Atlantic 10 Update: Week 13

Atlantic 10 Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic 10 enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1527.1 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.59 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Dayton

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1607.9 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.57 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Duquesne

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1501.6 (ranked 183 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.77 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fordham

Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1446.6 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.18 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

G Washington

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1520.7 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.52 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

George Mason

Record: 20-2 | Elo: 1689.8 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.38 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

La Salle

Record: 7-15 | Elo: 1424.2 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.88 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 5-18 | Elo: 1463.6 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.86 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Richmond

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1469.0 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.67 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1578.1 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.58 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Saint Louis

Record: 21-1 | Elo: 1660.0 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.51 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

St Bonaventure

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1546.9 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.25 (ranked 142 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

URI

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1525.9 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.81 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

VCU

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1671.6 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.91 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic 10 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10
TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Atlantic 10 Conference

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