Week 13 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets
February 2, 2026Week 13: January 26 – February 02, 2026
This week saw 10 upsets shake up the landscape, with an average margin of victory of just 4.5 points. The action was incredibly competitive, featuring 8 games decided by 5 points or less and 1 blowouts (15+ points). The lowest-ranked team to secure a win was #316 Jacksonville.
These results highlight the parity in college basketball, where any team can win on any given night. Below is the countdown of the week’s most significant upsets based on our Upset Rating model.
#10: Tulane @ Memphis
Final Score: Tulane 78, Memphis 76
Date: February 01, 2026
Venue: Tulane @ Memphis
Favorite: Memphis (Ranked #116)
Underdog: Tulane (Ranked #205)
Predicted Score: Memphis 82.0 – 72.9 (9.1 points)
Upset Rating: 13.3
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Memphis had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Tulane 10-24 (42%), Memphis 4-20 (20%)
- Two-point shooting: Tulane 14-24 (58%), Memphis 16-36 (44%)
#9: Lipscomb @ Jacksonville
Final Score: Jacksonville 70, Lipscomb 65
Date: January 29, 2026
Venue: Lipscomb @ Jacksonville
Favorite: Lipscomb (Ranked #189)
Underdog: Jacksonville (Ranked #316)
Predicted Score: Lipscomb 78.8 – 70.4 (8.4 points)
Upset Rating: 15.1
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Lipscomb had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Jacksonville 6-18 (33%), Lipscomb 6-20 (30%)
#8: UC San Diego @ CSU Northridge
Final Score: CSU Northridge 81, UC San Diego 64
Date: January 31, 2026
Venue: UC San Diego @ CSU Northridge
Favorite: UC San Diego (Ranked #151)
Underdog: CSU Northridge (Ranked #252)
Predicted Score: UC San Diego 80.7 – 71.0 (9.7 points)
Upset Rating: 15.9
Key Factors:
- Free throws: CSU Northridge 18-23 (78%), UC San Diego 8-18 (44%)
- Foul trouble: UC San Diego had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Two-point shooting: CSU Northridge 21-41 (51%), UC San Diego 16-42 (38%)
- Rebounding: CSU Northridge 39, UC San Diego 30 (9-rebound advantage, 8 offensive)
#7: Old Dominion @ Arkansas State
Final Score: Old Dominion 75, Arkansas State 71
Date: January 28, 2026
Venue: Old Dominion @ Arkansas State
Favorite: Arkansas State (Ranked #195)
Underdog: Old Dominion (Ranked #234)
Predicted Score: Arkansas State 82.3 – 68.0 (14.3 points)
Upset Rating: 17.7
Key Factors:
- Free throws: Old Dominion 11-14 (79%), Arkansas State 11-17 (65%)
- Turnovers: Arkansas State 15, Old Dominion 9 (6-turnover disparity)
- Three-point shooting: Old Dominion 8-23 (35%), Arkansas State 10-30 (33%)
- Two-point shooting: Old Dominion 20-39 (51%), Arkansas State 15-30 (50%)
#6: Montana State @ Sacramento St
Final Score: Sacramento St 83, Montana State 80
Date: January 29, 2026
Venue: Montana State @ Sacramento St
Favorite: Montana State (Ranked #178)
Underdog: Sacramento St (Ranked #307)
Predicted Score: Montana State 76.7 – 64.6 (12.1 points)
Upset Rating: 22.1
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Sacramento St 24-39 (62%), Montana State 11-29 (38%)
- Three-point shooting: Sacramento St 8-18 (44%), Montana State 15-35 (43%)
#5: Harvard @ Yale
Final Score: Harvard 67, Yale 65
Date: January 31, 2026
Venue: Harvard @ Yale
Favorite: Yale (Ranked #64)
Underdog: Harvard (Ranked #135)
Predicted Score: Yale 82.4 – 68.5 (13.9 points)
Upset Rating: 23.4
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Harvard 8-17 (47%), Yale 8-20 (40%)
- Two-point shooting: Harvard 14-30 (47%), Yale 16-36 (44%)
#4: Montana @ Sacramento St
Final Score: Sacramento St 86, Montana 79
Date: January 31, 2026
Venue: Montana @ Sacramento St
Favorite: Montana (Ranked #194)
Underdog: Sacramento St (Ranked #307)
Predicted Score: Montana 79.8 – 65.6 (14.1 points)
Upset Rating: 24.0
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Sacramento St 11-24 (46%), Montana 7-19 (37%)
- Turnovers: Montana 15, Sacramento St 9 (6-turnover disparity)
#3: North Dakota @ St. Thomas – Minnesota
Final Score: North Dakota 81, St. Thomas – Minnesota 80
Date: January 29, 2026
Venue: North Dakota @ St. Thomas – Minnesota
Favorite: St. Thomas – Minnesota (Ranked #123)
Underdog: North Dakota (Ranked #273)
Predicted Score: St. Thomas – Minnesota 87.1 – 74.7 (12.5 points)
Upset Rating: 25.0
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: North Dakota 22-36 (61%), St. Thomas – Minnesota 21-37 (57%)
#2: NJIT @ Vermont
Final Score: NJIT 79, Vermont 77
Date: January 31, 2026
Venue: NJIT @ Vermont
Favorite: Vermont (Ranked #164)
Underdog: NJIT (Ranked #306)
Predicted Score: Vermont 77.9 – 64.1 (13.8 points)
Upset Rating: 26.6
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: NJIT 8-18 (44%), Vermont 8-29 (28%)
- Foul trouble: Vermont had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
#1: W Carolina @ ETSU
Final Score: W Carolina 90, ETSU 88
Date: January 29, 2026
Venue: W Carolina @ ETSU
Favorite: ETSU (Ranked #91)
Underdog: W Carolina (Ranked #302)
Predicted Score: ETSU 79.0 – 67.0 (11.9 points)
Upset Rating: 29.8
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: ETSU had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 2 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: W Carolina 11-26 (42%), ETSU 8-22 (36%)
- Two-point shooting: W Carolina 18-30 (60%), ETSU 18-31 (58%)
Week 13 Summary
Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10
College basketball experienced a high number of upsets this week, with 10 teams defying expectations to secure victories against higher-ranked opponents.
The data highlights close games as a common trend, with eight out of ten upsets decided by five points or less. For instance, #316 Jacksonville defeated #189 Lipscomb with a margin of victory of just 5 points. Conversely, only one game resulted in a blowout, where a team emerged victorious by 15 points or more: #273 North Dakota secured a 20-point win over #123 St. Thomas – Minnesota.
The average margin of victory was exactly 4.5 points, underscoring the parity and competitiveness of this week’s upsets. This statistic is particularly noteworthy given the relatively small sample size of games.
Some teams stood out for their impressive performances. The lowest-ranked team to win an upset was #316 Jacksonville, which defeated #189 Lipscomb with a margin of victory of 5 points.
The Upset Rating, a metric used to quantify the extent to which a lower-ranked team exceeded expectations in its upset win, belonged to #302 W Carolina, which edged out #91 ETSU with an impressive finish and an Upset Rating of 29.8.
Overall, this week’s results demonstrate that college basketball is highly competitive, with teams consistently pushing each other to new heights in closely contested games. As we move forward into the rest of the season, it will be fascinating to see how these upsets impact team rankings and future match-ups.
